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It has only been 6 days since our last Real Clear Politics GOP BETTING AVERAGES update (HERE) … but following the IOWA CAUCUS “beatdown” (HERE) … the numbers have moved significantly and it is important for Patriots to see how all of this works.
Know that none of what happened was unexpected … nor are the movements in the betting averages unexpected (knowing we don’t encourage betting) … but all this is how human behavior manifests itself … especially when people put their money at risk.
IT IS LIKE THE STOCK MARKET: Otherwise stated … from someone who has done a lot of financial / investment work over the years … this is EXACTLY how the stock market works … which many consider the stock market as “betting” too … just applied to POLITICS as opposed to STOCK PRICES.
WATCH & LEARN: Learn how this works and we won’t be as easily manipulated by the #FakeNEWS & “human” polls with ulterior motives … and as a bonus we all might become better stock market investors as well. 😉
BETTING AVERAGES
RCP GOP Betting Averages (HERE)
Nothing unexpected happened Monday night with the IOWA Caucus results. TRUMP was anticipated to be the big winner … the numbers came in as predicted (like a company earnings report) … but there was an unknow and you don’t get 100% credit in betting averages (or stock prices) until the results have been released. Something unexpected “could” have happened. Folks that were “betting” were cautious with their money … so PRE-IOWA TRUMP was at 74.4% & Nikki was 14.8%.
But post-IOWA … as things turned out as expected and official results were announced … the folks that were “betting” gained CONFIDENCE … and the numbers have shifted significantly.
TRUMP … +8.9% to 83.3%
HALEY … -5.1% to 9.7%
DeSantis … -1.2% to 3.4%
In reality … now that the expected has happened … it is a 1 man race … and it is over!!!
But it is not 100% yet … so before you get to 100% TRUMP (which won’t happen until it is official at the convention this summer even if everyone drops out of the race) … we need to play out New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina … and then SUPER TUESDAY on March 5th.
Keep watching … and keep learning … and keep following the “real” numbers!!!
TO WIN IN NOVEMBER
RCP 2024 President Betting Averages (HERE)
We have not talked about this chart yet … but NEXT we need to start looking at the Real Clear Politics PRESIDENTIAL BETTING AVERAGES!!!
When we first introduced you to looking at the “betting” numbers back on September 14th, 2023 (HERE) … TRUMP was losing bigtime … but after FOUR MONTHS … the story has changed … substantially.
TRUMP … +12.3% to 41.3%
BIDEN … -3.5% to 29.8%
That is a huge move … but it is indicative of reality (vs. what the #FakeNEWS & “human” polls might tell you). These are the betting averages. The possibility of TRUMP being “convicted” has obviously being factored in to these averages by people that are putting their money where their mouth is.
These real people see a TRUMP victory, even given the possibility of a “conviction” before election day 2024.
Next “HEAD FAKE” … A “CONVICTION”
SO … HAVE WE LEARNED NOT TO BE MANIPULATED?: We hear DeSantis & Haley supporters claiming all the time now that their candidate is the only one that can beat Biden. When we ask them why they believe that they tell us “Because the ‘polls’ say that if TRUMP is ‘convicted’ Biden will beat him.”
Think about it … “WHO” started that talking point? People with an ulterior motive??? But YOU know better now … right??? #LearnTheirTRICKS!!!
As we learned with the Real Clear Politics betting averages for the GOP Nominee over the past 4 months … that is not what the numbers say will happen.
Real people with skin in the game are saying TRUMP wins, even with an expected “conviction”.
This will be really fun to watch over the next 292 days as we move to TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5th, 2024!!!
Remember … don’t be “manipulated” again by the #FakeNEWS, “human” polls with ulterior motives … or others being mislead into being worried about a “conviction”.
Stay tuned …
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Have an opinion? Different or in agreement? About the above or something else? If so, speak up as we want to hear from you! Send your letters to team@mySCGOP.com and we will be happy to share it with our readers. #SaveSouthCarolina!
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